Transmission and the Third Evolution

In the Second Evolution, the environment selects through the phenotype (Darwin's natural selection), which is coded by a species' genome. However, only the genes are reproduced and transmitted. Gene selection is therefore done indirectly. The concept of transmission does not apply in the First Evolution.

Writing allows the transmission of knowledge

 

How can we identify the parallel forces at work in the Third Evolution? Human beings exert selection on innovation, institutions, and new ideas, but they do not control their spread. What is selected is therefore what is communicated to others, and, more importantly, what has been written for the last ten thousand years. We can think of institutions, businesses, states as entities that implement what is written (in status) and outlive human beings. In this respect, ideals, ideologies, innovations and religions spread easily between humans. They are transmitted by humans, particularly by the human brain. Without brains, what is written is useless. Without the written or spoken word, the human brain, with all its frailties and biases, cannot sustain any development beyond autarky. Many authors emphasise the ability of human groups to accumulate knowledge. This accumulation is done outside human bodies in permanent traces (books, and now digital writings). This accumulation is horizontal and allows much faster transmission than the Second Evolution. Speed is central to the Third Evolution.

Inefficiencies of Evolutions

 What is the Universe made of ? We are now in a position to answer precisely about the proportions. This is the  Cosmic Camembert:

The composition of the Universe, after the analysis of the Planck ESA mission

Using the equivalence of mass and energy, as described by Einstein's famous E=mc² equation, measurements of the cosmic microwave background allow us to indirectly "weigh" the universe. Today, the Universe is mostly made of dark energy, which behaves like a cosmological constant. Next comes cold dark matter, which only interacts with other matter via gravity. Finally, ordinary matter (stars, planets, gas, rocks, life and us) makes up less than 5% of the total. Radiation accounts for just 0.001%. Even in the 5% where all interactions (electroweak and strong) occur (other than gravity), only a small proportion ends up in galaxies. Overall, the universe can be considered almost oblivious to the rocky planet on which life and humanity exist. This is the inefficiency of the First Evolution.

Life is inefficient, too. In order to ensure the survival of its species, a tree must scatter countless seeds every year. And 99% of the species have vanished from the Earth. Less than 2% of the genome codes for proteins. The rest is known as 'junk DNA' or 'dark DNA'. A final example, the eye proceed from an awful design if we listen to engineers. Indeed, the wiring (the optical nerve) is going out from the retina through the vitreous body, i.e. by masking some light, in particular via the blind spot.

The jury is still out on the Third Evolution. We can think of inequalities as a kind of inefficiency. In that case, the Third Evolution is still very inefficient. However, efficiency must be evaluated in terms of cost versus benefit. One dimension could be the information-to-energy ratio. Today, we consume much more energy per capita than a few generations ago, but we also process much more information.

In short, the three evolutions are unguided (see a previous post on the blindness of evolutions). Consequently, they are costly and seemingly inefficient.

The Future

 It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.

Predicting hard facts about the coming years, decades, or centuries is generally presumptuous. 

We can project trends, but we know they will fail sooner or later. Misconceptions often lead us to the wrong conclusions as Pinker and Rosling, among others, have shown.

Trends

People are richer and healthier.

There are fewer wars and fewer victims of natural disasters.

Education is more widespread than ever before.

Information has never been more evenly distributed.

People have never been more connected.

Resources have never been more in demand by an energy- and mineral-hungry humanity. 

Religions and ideologies continue to adapt to the modern, changing world, attracting people in need of security. 

Universal values are spreading.

Cooperation and competition remain two of the most important ways of generating new ideas and innovations.

Other trends concern population growth and the climate change.

Projection

The health and economic condition is increasing for the whole world population.

Wars, as a means of solving domination issues, disappear. Instead we have instances of dispute resolutions at various regional and global levels.

The health and economic conditions of the entire world population improve.
Wars as a means of resolving issues of domination are disappearing. Instead, we have instances of dispute resolution at various regional and global levels.
Education is the universal means for young people to climb the (ever-growing) knowledge pyramid.
Access to information is a key issue. New technologies continue to emerge to facilitate our connection with people and the world.
Innovation is proving to be the only way to switch to the noble energy: electricity.
Countries are becoming more secular and religions are being reduced to the private sphere.

Failure

Of course, as this vision of the personal computer in 1954 reminds us, examples of evolution are hard to come by.

How a Home Computer was Imagined in 1954

Who could have forecast the downfall of Kodak paper photography?

The Third Evolution

The Third Evolution is the new evolution that is happening now: the DNA-based evolution was too slow and has been replaced by the human-based fast evolution. Humanity is not the center of this evolution, but it is the engine of it, just as DNA genes are the engine of the Second Evolution. Institutions are the new emerging appearance of how this new evolution is organized. The characteristics of this new evolution are exactly the same as those previously described in this blog: inheritance (things do not arise spontaneously), digital characteristics, diversity of the environment, unicity (human-driven evolution), blindness, and randomness.

Ref: 

Steven Pinker, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress (2018)

Hans Rosling Factfulness (2018)